We received very positive feedback on our initial analysis of Covid-19 spread in the UK and the forecast for the ease of the lockdown. We were contacted by a few organisations requesting us to take a deeper dive into the data and forecast the ease of the lockdown under different scenarios to help them plan their businesses.
We were requested to analyse data for the following countries: Italy, United Kingdom, Spain, Germany, France and USA. The analysis presented below is a standard scenario where governments continue to implement their current strategy.
Results as follows:
Analogue: China
China has done particularly well in controlling the spread of the virus. We note that other governments are struggling to implement similar restraints in place to control the spread of the infection. The number of daily new cases of Covid-19 in China have increased lately, which was expected due to the ease of lockdown measures on 24 March 2020. The Basic Reproduction Ratio (R0) has fallen below 0.01. The situation in China remains well within control and the economy is beginning to open. China began to ease its lockdown when R0 was 0.03.
Italy
Last week, we predicted the number of daily new cases of Covid-19 in Italy has peaked and infection rate will start dropping. This is indeed what the data showed since we published.
Italy imposed its lockdown on 09 March 2020. The number of people currently carrying infection (people who are infectious) continues to decline. The Basic Reproduction Ratio has dropped below 0.4. Following China’s strategy would mean that lockdown measures could be relaxed by early to mid May, when the number of people with infection and Reproduction Ratio is sufficiently low. The forecast below assumes Italy continues to perform under its current lockdown measures.
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom imposed a lockdown on 24 March 2020. We initially estimated the number of daily new cases to peak on 7 April 2020. New data suggests that the number of cases will now peak on 12 April 2020. We believe the deviation from our initial estimates, is due to the efficiency of lockdown i.e. proportion of people following governments advice.
The number of infectious cases (number of people with infection) will peak on 17 April 2020. The government’s plan of easing down the lockdown measures on Easter are not likely to materialise. It would be rather risky strategy and too soon to ease down the lockdown anytime in April or early May. If the UK follows China’s strategy, the lockdown could potentially be eased during the last week of June, when the number of people with infection and the Reproduction Ratio is sufficiently low.
Spain
A similar analysis for Spain. The number of daily new cases will continue to decline provided that the lockdown measured are continued to be implemented and followed. The number of infections cases and Reproduction Ratio will be low enough to ease lockdown on 08 May 2020. 
Germany
The number of daily new cases are on increase and will soon peak around 06 April 2020. The number of infectious cases will peak on 08 April 2020. The number of infectious cases and Reproduction Ratio will be low enough to ease lockdown on 01 June 2020.
France
We expect the number of daily new cases to start declining now. The number of infectious cases and Reproduction Ratio will be low enough to ease lockdown on 19 May 2020.
USA
USA is much more complicated when compared to European nations due to its size and geographical population distribution. The different degree of progression of infections in different states differs widely at this stage. Here, we present a holistic approach which might be well off the reality that materialises in due course.
Let us know if you would like us to add any other country to our analysis.
It is very important that we all continue to follow the government’s advice during this unprecedented time and keep safe.
References
1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
2) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
3) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_age_structure
4) https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
5) https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019
6) https://www.gov.uk/coronavirus
